The NZDUSD sits tight ahead of the RBNZ rate decision
No change expected. Decision at 8 PM ET/0100 GMT.
The RBNZ are largely expected to keep the OCR unchanged at 1.75%. The rate has been at 1.75% since November 2016. Today will keep that streak alive.
The announcement will be accompanied by the Bank's Monetary Policy Statement, a quarterly event.
At the November meeting, the Policy assessment read.
The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and into 2020. There are both upside and downside risks to our growth and inflation projections. As always, the timing and direction of any future OCR move remains data dependent.
The pick-up in GDP growth in the June quarter was partly due to temporary factors, and business surveys continue to suggest growth will be soft in the near term. Employment is around its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy.
GDP growth is expected to pick up over 2019. Monetary stimulus and population growth underpin household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure and housing also supports domestic demand. The level of the New Zealand dollar exchange rate will support export earnings.
As capacity pressures build, core consumer price inflation is expected to rise to around the mid-point of our target range at 2 percent.
Downside risks to the growth outlook remain. Weak business sentiment could weigh on growth for longer. Trade tensions remain in some major economies, raising the risk that trade barriers increase and undermine global growth.
Upside risks to the inflation outlook also exist. Higher fuel prices are boosting near-term headline inflation. We will look through this volatility as appropriate. Our projection assumes firms have limited pass through of higher costs into generalised consumer prices, and that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored at our target.
We will keep the OCR at an expansionary level for a considerable period to contribute to maximising sustainable employment, and maintaining low and stable inflation.
The full monetary policy statement can be found HERE.
Eamonn has some expectations from some financial institutions HERE. The main takeaway will be if the RBNZ pushes its implied OCR hike projection into 2021.
Technically, the pair has moved down to the 100 day MA today and stalled. The 100 day MA is at 0.67196. A move below would be more bearish, with the swing low from January 22 at 0.6706. Below that the 50% of the move up from the October low comes in at 0.66963.
On the topside, the 200 day MA is not far away at 0.67525. Move back above that MA on the headlines, and the upside will open back up for a more serious corrective move higher.
Yesterday and last Thursday and Friday (see hourly chart below), saw the pair trade above and below the 200 day MA as the market consolidated waiting for the next shove. The high over those days, comes in at 0.67729. A move above that ceiling will be needed to get shorts covering with a look toward 0.6800 as the next target.