RBA April 2019 meeting minutes: Likelihood of near term rise in rates low

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reserve Bank of Australia April meeting minutes published now.  

  • board saw no strong case for near-term move in interest rates
  • rate cut would be "appropriate" if inflation stayed low, unemployment trended up
  • given subdued inflation, likelihood of near-term rise in rates was "low"
  • board agreed inflation likely to remain muted for some time
  • economic effect of lower rate cuts likely to be smaller than in past
  • but would support economy via lower A$, reduced interest pyaments on loans
  • board agreed it was not possible to "fine-tune" policy outcomes
  • board would monitor how tension between jobs strength, slow growth played out
  • expected further gradual progress on unemployment and inflation
  • marked slowdown in gdp growth at odds with improvement in labour market
  • income-based gdp weaker than expenditure, noted faster growth in tax payments
  • dwelling investment had passed its peak, large amount of work still in pipeline
  • outlook for drought-hit farm sector had improved since the feb somp
  • fall in house prices, home turnover had hit sales of vehicles, home furnishings
  • global financial conditions had eased, china stimulus having an impact
I bolded those wto above. RBA telling us what they are looking at, so should we be then! And, the second bold bit - rates not going higher any time soon. 

AUD had a wiggle and is coming off a few points as I update. Magnitude of the moves is small though. 

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