RBA April 2019 meeting minutes: Likelihood of near term rise in rates low
Reserve Bank of Australia April meeting minutes published now.
- board saw no strong case for near-term move in interest rates
- rate cut would be "appropriate" if inflation stayed low, unemployment trended up
- given subdued inflation, likelihood of near-term rise in rates was "low"
- board agreed inflation likely to remain muted for some time
- economic effect of lower rate cuts likely to be smaller than in past
- but would support economy via lower A$, reduced interest pyaments on loans
- board agreed it was not possible to "fine-tune" policy outcomes
- board would monitor how tension between jobs strength, slow growth played out
- expected further gradual progress on unemployment and inflation
- marked slowdown in gdp growth at odds with improvement in labour market
- income-based gdp weaker than expenditure, noted faster growth in tax payments
- dwelling investment had passed its peak, large amount of work still in pipeline
- outlook for drought-hit farm sector had improved since the feb somp
- fall in house prices, home turnover had hit sales of vehicles, home furnishings
- global financial conditions had eased, china stimulus having an impact
I bolded those wto above. RBA telling us what they are looking at, so should we be then! And, the second bold bit - rates not going higher any time soon.
AUD had a wiggle and is coming off a few points as I update. Magnitude of the moves is small though.