RBA April minutes: An appreciation in AUD would slow expected inflation

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Reserve Bank of Australia April monetary policy board minutes  

Full text is linked below - these rapid headlines via Reuters   

  • Board agreed there was not a strong case for near-term move in policy
  • Given current circumstances, board agreed next move in rates likely to be up
  • Progress on unemployment and inflation likely to be only gradual
  • Inflation to remain low for some time given retail competition, slow wage growth
  • Economy "appeared likely" to grow faster this year than in 2017
  • An appreciation in the A$ would slow expected acceleration in economy
  • Wages expected to pick up gradually as leading indicators pointed to more job gains
  • Still spare capacity in labour market, underemployment at high levels
  • High household debt creates uncertainty for consumption outlook
  • Board noted rise in US money market rates had flowed through to Australian rates
  • Risk of escalation in global trade restrictions needed to be monitored closely
  • Conditions in global economy positive, China debt levels an important risk
These are very familiar themes from the RBA. I note, though:
  • Given current circumstances, board agreed next move in rates likely to be up
"Given current circumstances..." ... this is always the case but the Bank doesn't always make it quite so clear. So while the next move in rates is likely up, we will still have to watch developments. A slowdown in inflation or a slow down in job growth might warrant particular attention - either could lead to a reconsideringof where the next rate move is likely to be.

As it stands now though, current low inflation will mean a period of no rate hike to come for quite some time.