Preview - RBNZ monetary policy decision and statement due at 0100 GMT on Wednesday 24 February 2021
Previews posted earlier are here:
- NZ shadow RBNZ board says there is little need for monetary policy change
- RBNZ monetary policy meeting 24 February - preview
Slotting in a couple of other quick snippets, with a focus on what to watch for the kiwi $
- We think it's likely the Bank reaffirms, at this stage, that it will buy bonds under its QE programme until June 2022, and there is a chance the MPC guides the market towards expecting some further gradual tapering in the pace of purchases this year.
- The Bank will want to avoid a post-MPS surge in the NZD, but as we have seen post the RBA's overtly dovish early-February Statement, the Bank's ability to hold back the NZD is limited, if not non-existent, against the backdrop of the global reflation trade.
- Orr is likely to talk up the risks and uncertainties ahead
- The risk is the NZD ... fall briefly post-meeting because of the RBNZ's dovish assessment