Reserve Bank of New Zealand Monetary Policy Statement and media conference
- Due on Wednesday 12 August 2020 at 0200GMT
Earlier posts:
Via Citi (in brief):
- RBNZ ... policy will be left unchanged but risks are dovish
- activity data since the last forecast in May has recovered sufficiently to justify an upward revision to growth forecasts
- However, of greater focus for markets will be the RBNZ's review of its monetary policy tools -especially around potential to adjust the LSAP (currently NZD60bn), purchasing foreign assets or implementing negative interest rate policy
And on the NZ$:
- Seasonality shows that there is more risk avoidance in August than in other months, and in the G10 currency space NZD tends to fall in line with AUD
- This is an anomaly, and we see no clear reason for this type of seasonality. However, with a general election due in September, if the market environment this year changes to risk-off again, the probability that NZD will depreciate over the next month, even if only temporarily, is likely to get higher
