Reuters poll shows Federal Reserve expected to hike rates again this year

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: Central Banks

Findings from Reuters latest on the US economy and Fe outlook:

Median 25% chance of US recession in next 12 months

  • 40% in next two years (compares with 20, 40 in the poll taken prior in January)

US GDP to average 2.4% this year and 1.8% in 2020(2.5, 1.8% in the previous poll)

Federal Reserve to raise rates once this year (vs 2 hikes in January poll)

  • "There is a lot of uncertainty and there are some good reasons to forecast a slowdown in 2019 as compared to in 2018," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics. "It certainly does makes sense for the Fed to take a pause on policy to see how things play out, because it is not impossible for the economy to slow down in 2019 between weakening global growth, tighter financial conditions and fading fiscal stimulus." 
  • "The Fed is very focused on slowing growth. If anything, the bigger risk is if the Fed goes too late rather than too early," said Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch

Reuters poll February 8-14 of >110 economists 

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