Trading scandal and oversight dog Powell
Jerome Powell is still the favorite to be re-nominated as Fed Chair but his odds took a hit today on PredictIt, with Brainard's values rising to the best yet.
It's basically a 70-30% betting market. Brainard previously hit a high of 30-cents back on August 10.
I certainly don't take PredictIt odds as definitive of anything but Powell is collecting some baggage and the Fed trading scandal happened at the worst possible time.
For me, this would be an easy decision. Politics is about winning and easy money boosts asset prices. Sure, inflation could bite one day but if you want to win the mid-terms, keep the party going.
Now whether that's the best move for America is a different question.
At the end of the day, they're both extremely well-qualified and Powell gives you more cover than Brainard. He also has a good record as a communicator and that's a tough combo to give up.
What's the trade? If it's Brainard, sell bonds and buy gold.