UBS on the FOMC (July meeting): 50bps if Powell gets his way?
UBS assess that Fed Chair Powell wants a 50bp cut to offset any confidence shock and also manage the risks to the economic outlook.
- The bank say to watch incoming data into the July meeting
- The data may or may not be enough for Powell to convince the Committee to cut 50bp
- Thus a 25bp cut is likely negotiated compromise
I reckon a 50bp cut in July would pretty much mean Powell is a lock for a Space Cadet position.
ps. Earlier FOMC views posted for reference: