Westpac on the US Federal Reserve timeline for taper and hiking
Fresh off their call for the Reserve Bank of Australia:
- Westpac: We expect the RBA will begin it's tightening cycle in Q1 of 2023
- More on Westpac forecasting an RBA cash rate hike in early 2023
WPAC on the Fed, the bank has revised their forecast following last week's FOMC:
- we anticipate Federal Reserve purchases to be tapered through the first half of 2022 after the policy change is announced in September 2021 - conditional on key data performing.
- Rate hikes are then expected to begin in December 2022.
- How can one event shift expectations so far? Simply, on display in the June FOMC meeting communications was an abrupt shift in the perspective of the Committee, from a risk-focused mindset to a constructive, pragmatic approach. This is most apparent in the FOMC's characterisation of the labour market.
(Summary from a much longer piece)