The Bank of England meet today, Thursday, 4 August 2022. The announcement is at 1100 GMT.
Consensus is for a 50bp rate hike. Earlier previews:
- TD says to sell GBP on the BoE rate hike Thursday
- Four scenarios for EUR/GBP on the Bank of England meeting today
National Australia Bank with what they expecting from the BoE policy decision:
- the latest Bloomberg survey sees 30 of 43 analysts expecting a 50ps rise in Base Rate and the other 13 looking for only 25bps, as is NAB but in what we describe as a ‘line ball call’.
- The argument against 50bps is that the conditionality for a more aggressive pace/magnitude of hikes, whether it be evidence of accelerating wages/earnings growth and /or rising inflation expectations, have not been met. Recall too that in the last forecast update in May, inflation was forecast to be below target at the end of the forecast period if Bank Rate followed the market-implied path.
- That said we know 50bps is on the table tonight, since Governor Bailey said so in his Manion House speech last month.