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  • Front-loading rate increases now helps avoid need for even higher rates down the road
  • 100 bps hike is very unusual and reflects unusual economic circumstances of inflation at nearly 8%
  • Strain of higher rates in short term will 'get us to the other side of this difficult period and back to normal'
  • How high rates need to go will depend on economy
  • We are projecting a soft landing but path to that has narrowed because of elevated and persistent inflation
  • High inflation argues for getting to the high end of neutral or just above it
  • Inflation is broadening because the Canadian economy is in excess demand
  • Employers can't find enough workers and they're increasing wages to find them

USD/CAD is at the lows of the day at 1.2943 but that's come with a broad turn in risk sentiment on a big 'peak inflation ' trade.

More to come