- A good chunk of inflation is persistent and will require concerted action
- I would put neutral at about 2% but will need to go above that to bring down inflation
- Rise in 1-to-3 year inflation expectations is concerning
- I don't take relatively stable long-term inflation expectations as a sign the Fed doesn't have to do much
- It's too early to say if we've seen a peak in inflation, will need more than a few tenths to make a judgement
There's nothing surprising here. Bullard has been consistently hawkish, even if he's reigned it in a bit lately.
