Fed's Evans: Today's inflation report is the first positive report

• Economy will continue to grow in H2
• Employment is a sign of a still-strong economy
• Inflation is unnacceptably high
• I expect the Fed will increase rates this year and next year
• I'm optimistic in forecasting that next year core PCE inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term will be closer to 2.5%
• Forecasts 2023 GDP at 1.5-2.5%
• It would take something adverse to trigger a recession
• We will be dealing with supply chain challenges longer than I would prefer
• I expect Fed funds to top out at 4% in 2023
• I expect end-of-year rates at 3.25-3.5%

I don't see anything here to shift the 50-75 debate. Fed officials will be happy to slow-roll it until they get another round of CPI and employment data before the Sept 21 FOMC. Implied pricing right now is 39% for 75 bps and the remainder for 50 bps.