Fed's George: Inflation number last month is encouraging but not time for a victory lap

The Fed's George came back in line and voted with her fellow Fed members for a 75 basis point hike at the last Fed meeting. At the previous meeting George had dissented in favor of a 50 basis point hike.

George says:

• Inflation Inflation Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Inflation is defined as a quantitative measure of the rate in which the average price level of goods and services in an economy or country increases over a period of time. It is the rise in the general level of prices where a given currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.In terms of assessing the strength or currencies, and by extension foreign exchange, inflation or measures of it are extremely influential. Inflation stems from the overall creation of money. This money is m Read this Term number last month is encouraging
• Warns it is not time for a victory lap
• relief and core inflation so far hardly comforting
• US still has a pretty significant imbalance between demand and supply
• inflation expectations seem to be pretty well anchored
• some encouraging signs around supply, given drop in shipping rates and improvement in delivery times
• no relief yet seen in the job market, with businesses reporting they are still under pressure to raise wages to higher
• does not expect much further help on inflation from improvements in supply
• productivity numbers currently abysmal
• pace of rate change can have implications for households and businesses
• policy has lags that must be watched
• not clear where stopping point for rate hikes will be, but Fed will need to be completely convinced inflation is coming down
• easing of financial conditions may have been based on optimism that Fed would slow down but does not reflect how Fed is thinking about policy