• Business contacts tell me not looking for as many workers as before
  • But these are only nascent signs, labor market still quite strong
  • Need to see several months of monthly changes moving down on inflation
  • We will need to raise rates and then hold them there for awhile
  • We'll bring rates back down once inflation gets closer to our 2% goal

This is a clear roadmap on how to think about the path of interest rates. Right now, there's a growing likelihood that July and August CPI will be negative because of the declines in oil and gasoline prices.