From Goldman Sachs's Japan outlook for the coming year.

GS expect core CPI inflation (excludes fresh food) will decelerate after peaking at around 3.5% at end-2022, but will remain above 2% through most of 2023 "owing largely to the cumulative impact of the weak yen coming to the fore".

GS on "the BOJ has positioned wage growth of at least 3% as a prerequisite for stable achievement of its 2% inflation target":

  • We expect an acceleration in basic wage growth reflecting high inflation effectively canceled out by a deceleration in bonuses and other wages chiefly due to a slowdown in corporate earnings growth, resulting in largely flat overall wage growth just shy of of 2%.
  • stable wage growth of 3% still seems to be a distant prospect

Thus follows Goldman Sachs' outlook for Bank of Japan policy:

  • We do not expect an explicit rate hike ... in 2023, chiefly due to the above-noted wage factor and the Kishida administration’s concerns about global slowdown.
  • That said, adjustments to forward guidance with an easing bias and widening the 10-year yield band in 2023 are possibilities, in our view.

Goldman Sachs yen forecasts:

Goldman Sachs yen 29 November 2022