Goldman Sachs preface their expectation with "We see a below-consensus" ...

GS have been consistently below consensus with this expectation.

  • We see a below-consensus 20% probability of entering a recession over the next year
  • as we think taming inflation will not require a recession
  • we expect the unemployment rate to end the year at 3.5% and remain there for the next few years
Jerome Powell volcano

Say what you like about JP, but falling inflation and low unemployment argues that he is doing just fine.