Let's face it, the Fed is sticking his finger in the air and feeling which way the breeze is blowing. The Federal Reserve has a slew of PhD economists who are pouring over data in making judgments as far as the economy goes. The reality is the wave of the economy is still being influenced by all the Covid and Russian aggression imbalances. That has impacted consumers and their spending patterns. It simply is not predictable nor anywhere near a certainty.