Market pricing for Wednesdays' Bank of Canada decision is 70% for a 25 bps hike with the remainder at no change.
Economists at National Bank argue the BOC is taking an unnecessary risk but hiking at this meeting after weak core retail sales and softening sentiment surveys.
"Those who argue that another 25 basis points increase will not kill the economy forget that at this stage of the business cycle, the impact of further hikes is not linear. In other words, the marginal increase could be the straw that breaks the camel's back," they write.
Others argue that Macklem is unlikely to want to surprise the market but National Bank illustrates that in the past year, the BOC surprised the market 5 out of 8 times.
Bank of Canada? More like Bank of Curveball.