At the June 2023 meeting the Fed projected the following median estimates for GDP, unemployment, PCE inflation, and core PCE inflation:
FOMC median projections from June 2023
In September 2023, the Median projections now show:
Expectations are for GDP, unemployment, inflation September
For GDP, the Fed now sees growth in 2023 and 2024 to be higher than in June. They see the unemployment rate lower in 2023, 2024 and 2025. They see PCE inflation remaining near the projections from June and the core PCE a little lower in 2023 but little changed in 2024.
Regarding the dot plot, the June plot showed the following skew of projections:
The dot plot for September shows the following skew of projections:
The Fed dot plot projects higher for longer
The dot plot projects higher higher rates for longer.
