Via Kiwibank, who were ahead of the curve ("sticking to our call for cuts to begin in November") on this shift from the RBNZ:

  • importantly, we finally got a noticeable softening in tone. It was a welcome shift given the total collapse in business confidence last week. Enough is enough.
  • The economy is clearly responding to restrictive monetary policy. Economic activity looks likely to contract over Q2 and unemployment is set to rise further. We expect inflation to fall in line, eventually. With a softening in language and tone, we, along with all market traders, have grown in confidence that a rate cut should be delivered this year.
  • Market pricing has moved to price in a full 60bps of cuts by November, with the first 25bp cut for October. We agree with the market, but don’t think the RBNZ will deliver as much as priced. Regardless, it’s good news for most businesses and households.


The Reserve Bank of New Zealand yesterday, ICYMI:

rbnz cash rate history 11 July 2024 2