The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) March meeting are well past their use-by date:

Maybe they have some nutritional value left, I'll concede 'in 2024' might mean a cut in, I dunno, September or December? More likely before the US Presidential election I guess. I mean the Fed is independent but not THAT independent ;-)

On Wednesday we had the data show that US core CPI rose higher than forecast for the third straight month:

Expectations for rate cuts shifted further, with markets now pricing something like 40bp worth of rate cuts for the year, compared to guidance in that March meeting of 75bp.

As for a June rate cut, FedWatch now has this at just 16%. I've been banging on, and on, that there will be no June rate cut:

Oil prices have been gaining all of this year = inflationary (among other inputs):


FedWatch now shows the probability of a June rate cut at 16%. Note that this is not a Q&A survey, it's a probability derived from futures market pricing:

fedwatch june fomc cut 16 percent 11 April 2024 2