Federal Reserve doodle
  • Consumer price inflation continued to decline, but recent progress was uneven.
  • Disinflation process was continuing along a path that was generally expected to be somewhat uneven
  • Participants generally judged that risks to the achievement of the Committee's employment and inflation goals were moving into better balance
  • Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%
  • A few participants remarked that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to decline as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further
  • Participants discussed the still-elevated rate of housing services inflation and commented on the uncertainty regarding when and by how much lower readings for rent growth on new leases would pass through to this category of inflation
  • Some participants noted that increased immigration, which had likely been boosting the growth of personal consumption spending, may also have been adding to the demand for housing
  • Many participants pointed to indicators such as higher credit card balances, greater use of buy-now-pay-later programs, or rising delinquency rates on some types of consumer loans as evidence that the finances of some lower- and moderate-income households might be coming under pressure
  • The economic projection prepared by the staff for the March meeting was stronger than the January forecast. The upward revision in the forecast primarily reflected the staff's incorporation of a higher projected path for population due to a boost from immigration.

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