ANZ forecast a huge drop for NZ Q2 GDP and a big jump for unemployment
New Zealand Q2 GDP to fall 17% q/q (annualised)
- 2020 GDP in total to fall 5.5%
- Unemployment rate to 8.6%, to stay above 8% into H2 2021
ANZ citing nationwide lock down. Assume its for 4 weeks.
Looking for a Q3 rebound if the level 3 restrictions are eased but if borders remain closed.
ANZ acknowledge the path ahead is 'enormously uncertain', risk ahead of for a greater economic impact iof the outbreak is not contained.
In other NZ news, the RBNZ conducted a QE operation, buying 250m NZ government bonds. Along with government fiscal efforts the RBNZ is working to reduce the negative economic impacts of the virus spread.