This a snippet from ANZ's weekly FX Strategy week ahead of the Australian dollar
- The data calendar is light, but we'll keep an eye on auction clearance rates - as weakness in the housing sector is a key downside risk for the AUD
(ps. for the major markets of Sydney and Melbourne last week results for clearance rates were still bumbling along around 55% for Sydney and 62% for Melbourne)
For the currency more specifically (bolding mine):
- The AUD is likely to remain caught in the cross-fire of US trade policy for now. We could be less bearish on the outlook if there were strong domestic data to latch onto, but the data flow remains uninspiring from an RBA rate hike perspective, and risks around the housing market may also weigh. Favourable terms-of-trade have helped so far, but this channel seems to be steadying.
- We expect the AUD to continue to trade defensively.
ANZ put fair value for the AUD/USD at 0.74; their bias for the week and month ahead:
