"AUD now sits on the cheap side of fair value"

A snippet from ANZ's latest monthly forex outlook, on the Australian dollar

• escalating trade war can generate new risks faster than central banks can contain them. This kind of environment breeds caution and that's generally not a recipe for AUD success.
• RBA remains committed to more easing
• Offsetting some of the pessimism, the AUD now sits on the cheap side of fair value,
• US rate differentials are likely to stop deteriorating
• Australia may shortly publish its first current account surplus since 1975
• Ultimately, however, these factors are likely to be marginal influences compared to ongoing trade risks, so we are comfortable with our view of the AUD closer to 0.65.