AUD traders - Thursday brings the (highly volatile) employment report - preview
The monthly labour market data (for May) is due from Australia on 13 June at 0130GMT
The month-to-month result is viewed as a bit of a lottery, although it has been showing ongoing job growth despite month to months swings.
Employment Change: K
- expected +16.0K, prior +28.4K
Unemployment Rate: %
- expected 5.1%, prior 5.2%
Full Time Employment Change: K
- prior was -6.3K
Part Time Employment Change: K
- prior was +34.7K
Participation Rate: %
- expected 65.8%, prior was 65.8%
- labour market data... will attract attention given the importance that the RBA is placing on the labour market in the monetary policy decision
- The leading indicators of the labour market have pulled back from high levels
- We expect a moderate 15k lift in employment in the month and the unemployment rate to stay at 5.2%
- given the importance the RBA has attributed to the labour market in determining future monetary policy, all eyes on Thursday will be on the latest employment figures for May
- Thursday's labour market data are key for financial markets given the RBA's repeated emphasis on the importance of the unemployment rate for near-term policy.
- NAB is forecasting a strong report given the employment boost from temporary workers hired to run the federal election. We expect employment grew by 40k and the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.1% in May. If we are wrong and unemployment increases again, then the market would price in the risk of a July rate cut.