AUD traders - Thursday brings the (highly volatile) employment report - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

The monthly labour market data (for May) is due from Australia on 13 June at 0130GMT 

The month-to-month result is viewed as a bit of a lottery, although it has been showing ongoing job growth despite month to months swings.

Employment Change: K 

  • expected +16.0K, prior +28.4K

Unemployment Rate: % 

  • expected 5.1%, prior 5.2%

Full Time Employment Change: K 

  • prior was -6.3K

Part Time Employment Change: K  

  • prior was +34.7K

Participation Rate: % 

  • expected 65.8%, prior was 65.8%
Commentary via CBA, in brief:
  • labour market data... will attract attention given the importance that the RBA is placing on the labour market in the monetary policy decision
  • The leading indicators of the labour market have pulled back from high levels
  • We expect a moderate 15k lift in employment in the month and the unemployment rate to stay at 5.2%
Daiwa:
  • given the importance the RBA has attributed to the labour market in determining future monetary policy, all eyes on Thursday will be on the latest employment figures for May

NAb:

  • Thursday's labour market data are key for financial markets given the RBA's repeated emphasis on the importance of the unemployment rate for near-term policy.
  • NAB is forecasting a strong report given the employment boost from temporary workers hired to run the federal election. We expect employment grew by 40k and the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.1% in May. If we are wrong and unemployment increases again, then the market would price in the risk of a July rate cut. 

 


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