The Australian employment report is due on Thursday 19 September 2019 at 0130GMT
- Employment Change, expected 15K, prior 41.1K
- Unemployment Rate, expected 5.2%, prior 5.2%
- Full Time Employment Change, prior was 34.5K
- Part Time Employment Change, prior was 6.7K
- Participation Rate, expected 66.0%, prior was 66.1%
The employment market is near the top of the long list of RBA concerns. While jobs growth has been hanging in there the bank would like unemployment lower (circa 4.5% seems to be an unofficial sort of 'target') to help drive inflationary pressures.
Preview posted yesterday:
Adding some snippets from
ANZ:
- leading indicators point to a slowdown in employment growth.
- Following stronger-than expected employment gains in July, we anticipate a small rise of 5k in August. This could see the unemployment rate tick up to 5.3%.
Westpac:
- employment remains quite robust
- The pace of employment growth has eased back from 2.9%yr in May but it is still stronger than the 2.2%yr at the end of 2018
- Our Jobs Index suggests employment should be growing around 2.4%yr currently before slowing to 2.1%yr through Q4
- Our forecast ... will see the annual pace of growth dip to 2.3%yr, the slowest pace since February, more in line with what our Jobs Index is suggesting
- In July, unemployment was flat at 5.2% … the labour force grew a very solid 41.9k
- With participation forecast to hold flat at 66.1% a 7k gain in employment will see unemployment lift to 5.3%
