Australian labour market report for March of 2019

Employment Change: +25.7K, a beat

  • expected 15.0K, prior 4.6K

Unemployment Rate: in line at 5.0% but up from Feb.

  • 5.0% expected %, prior 4.9%

Those two are the impactful headlines.

Full Time Employment Change: +48.3K, a hefty rise indeed

  • prior was -7.3K

Part Time Employment Change: -22.6K

  • prior was 11.9K

Participation Rate higher at 65.7%

  • expected 65.6%, prior was 65.6%

AUD has popped a little on the data release. The RBA is watching the employment market to guide its next interest rate decision. Employment has been a bright spot for the Australian economy and the figures today add to that.

Those looking for a rate cut as soon as May will have to add this outcome into their assessment. Admittedly the jobless rate has ticked a point higher, but so has participation.

On balance, no to a rate cut in May. Stay tuned, of course, for next week's CPI data.

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Ok, so those figures above are based on the 'seasonally adjusted' data, which is the market focus. The issuing authority, the Australian Bureau of Statistics, repeatedly advise us to look at the 'trend ' data. No one does (OK< after digesting the headlines they do).

Trend data:

  • trend unemployment rate steady in March 2019 at 5.0% (has been for five months)
  • trend participation rate steady at 65.6%
  • trend monthly employment increased by around 21,000
  • Full-time employment increased by 18,000
  • part-time employment increased by 3,000

Adds the ABS: Over the past year, trend employment increased by 299,000 persons (2.4 per cent) which was above the average annual growth over the past 20 years (2.0 per cent).

  • trend monthly hours worked increased by 0.2 per cent in March 2019 and by 2.4 per cent over the past year. This was above the 20 year average year-on-year growth of 1.7 per cent.
  • trend monthly underemployment rate remained steady at 8.2% (decreased by 0.4% percentage points over the year)
  • monthly trend underutilisation rate also remained steady, at 13.2 per cent (decreased by 0.9 percentage points over the year)

Background: