Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index for December -0.21% m/m
- November was -0.09%
The six month annualised growth rate in the Index (this indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future) comes in at -0.27% in December
- from +0.42% in November
WPAC (in brief) comments:
- Index growth rate extends a period of choppy performance.
- despite these choppy results the major trend is consistent with our view that growth has slowed from a solid above trend pace to at or below trend going forward
- Over the eight months from September 2017 to April 2018 the growth rate averaged +0.78%. In the eight months since April the growth rate has averaged only +0.16% - a clear step down
The growth pace in 2019 is expected to fall from the annual rate in 2018 of 3.0% to 2.6%, both rates are well short of the Reserve Bank's current outlook of 3.5% in 2018 and 3.25% in 2019, set out in its November Statement on Monetary Policy.
