Employment Change is the 'headline' data: +71.4K ... HUGE!!!

  • expected -10.0K, prior revised to 56.1K, from 58.3K

Unemployment Rate (the other 'headline') 5.8

  • expected 6.0%, prior 5.9%

Full Time Employment Change 41.6K

  • prior was 40K, revised from 39.7K

Part Time Employment Change 29.7K

  • prior was 18.6K

Participation Rate 65.3%

  • expected is 65.0%, prior was 65.0%

OK ... the first thing ... this is HUGE ... MUCH MUCH better than expected

  • Note the big gain
  • AND the big jump in participation

Second thing ... this will be questioned .. it looks (and surely is) too good to be true

  • Jobs data has been a bit of a lottery in Australia and despite Australian Bureau of Statistics assurances the data is good, there will be questions

Still, look at the AUD - huge jump


The Australian Bureau of Statistics tell us to look at the trend figures for a better picture, they say the 'trend' data is more reliable. OK, lets do just that:

The 'trend' is strong. Very strong indeed. Maybe +71K today is not right, maybe it is too high. But if you argue that Australian employment is not trending stronger, you're wrong.

If anyone naysays this trend data today they will be, as my mother would say 'talking through their hat'. I won't tell you what I'd say they are talking through, its much ruder.

More to come