Barclays keeps their view of the RBA cutting its cash rate on 4 February
The firm's senior economist, Rahul Bajoria, says that the details of the Australian jobs report today were significantly weaker than what the headline suggests.
He notes that growth in employment has been driven mostly by part-time jobs for the past two months and could reverse easily. Adding that a large number of retail chains in the country were shut this month, which suggests consumption will remain weak.
Looking ahead, Bajoria says that the impact of bushfires on sentiment - both consumer and business - will be key. And on the data front, says that "we have not seen the kind of improvement in economic data that would provide comfort to the RBA".
As such, the firm is maintaining their preference to be short on the aussie on likely chances of further deterioration in domestic data - partly due to the bushfires - and a high probability of the RBA staying dovish for some time.
They also retain their forecast for the RBA to cut its cash rate on 4 February but says that "the risk of a delay remains".
I reckon the more negative outlook is one that many in the market still shares about the aussie in general but the February rate cut call is sort of going against the consensus now, after having seen CBA and ANZ revise their expectations on that earlier today.
