Latest Quinnipiac poll
The latest Quinnipiac poll and Biden at 51% and Trump at 38% in the state of Florida. Earlier today a poll Saint Pete poll had Biden with a more narrow 6% gain.
In 2016, Trump outvoted Hillary Clinton by 1.2% with Trump taking 49% and Hillary Clinton 47.8%.
Yesterday a Quinnipiac poll showed that Biden led Trump by 1% in Texas. Trump defeated Clinton by 9% in 2016.
The State of Florida electoral college is 29. That is the same as New York. Texas electoral College vote is 38. California has the most electoral college votes at 55. Both New York and California will go to Biden. If Florida and Texas go Biden's way, that would be 151 electoral college votes from those 4 states.
Trump received 306 electoral votes in 2016 to Hillary Clinton's 232. It takes 270 of the 538 total electoral votes to win the election.
If current trends from the 2012 and 2016 elections continue, the closest results in 2020 will occur in Arizona, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's second congressional district, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin constituting the "Big Four" most likely to decide the electoral college. You can probably add Texas if you believe the recent polls.
A July 15 poll from www.fivethirtyeight.com has Biden ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania by 49.7% vs. 43.0%., and Biden up by 7% (was wider). Wisconsin has Biden ahead by 6.8% although that is also getting closer more recently. Texas according to this site, has the two candidates in a dead heat.
Given the surprise from 2016 however the polls will certainly not be believed until the votes are cast.
