BoA on a risk for the US election.
- A “landslide victory for either Trump or Biden and rapid election conclusion would likely be welcomed by markets while a severely contested election could see risk-off and drive 10-year rates materially lower”
- “If Trump leads on Election Day with a large backlog of absentee and mail-in ballots, stocks could see more volatility until more results come in”
BoA citing 2000 - the S&P 500 sold off 5% before the Supreme Court called the election for George W. Bush on December 12
Info comes via Bloomberg, more at the link (may be gated)