Is a no-deal more likely now?
The Article 50 extension has been granted to 31 October. Fittingly, it is halloween now when Britain are set to leave the EU. If this whole Brexit saga was not enough of a horror story for you then this is a reminder from the date itself. If you breathed a sigh of relief when Article 50 was extended and have not yet caught your breath. One of the obvious questions now is what's next?
Will Theresa May now resign?
Probably, yes. May told conservative MP's she would stop down if her deal was passed. It is also reported she has said that she couldn't stay if Article 50 was extended beyond June. The betting odds are favouring a 31% chance of that happening in July. If she steps down in June/July that will allow for a leadership contest before the annual Conservative party conference. So, if she resigns then who will replace her? According to a YouGov poll the most popular politician is Boris Johnson.
Boris is the standout contender, with Hunt,Rees Mogg, and Gove trailing behind. If the eurosceptic Boris takes the helm then the risk of a no-deal Brexit will be much higher. Boris stylistically is more candid and would naturally burn bridges more quickly than middle ground May. However, even if Boris is up for a no-deal, the majority of MP's are not.
Cross Party agreement
The chances of a cross party agreement are slim. The conservative and labour benches are as different as chalk and cheese. Even if May and Corbyn strike a deal the chances of getting past both parties are slim.
A Second Referendum
The minimum time to get ready for a second referendum is seen as 22 weeks, or 5 and 1//2 months. So, unless that is decided imminently then time will run out. Of course, the EU would most likely grant an extension if needed as President Tusk has hinted.
So, when all is said and done we are not much closer to sorting Brexit over here in the UK. All we have done is kicked the can down the road.
