CAD traders - data due Friday, Canada retail sales - preview

Author: Eamonn Sheridan | Category: News

Canadian retail sales for December are due at 1330GMT

  • expected -0.3% m/m, prior -0.9%
excl auto 
  • expected -0.3%, prior -0.6%  
CIBC preview 
  • According to industry data, auto sales sunk further in December, continuing the disappointing trend that's been observed in that sector recently. 
  • Even outside of the auto industry though, data could look weak as the effects of lower gasoline prices offset volume and/or price gains in other categories. 
  • The drag from fewer car sales will likely also mean real retail trade will post a negative print for the third consecutive month, and make it eight monthly declines for 2018, the first year that's happened since 2008.
  •  Forecast Implications - Household spending is clearly slowing, and won't be providing the same type of contributions to GDP growth as in past years. As a result, we're now looking for less than 1% real GDP growth in the final quarter of 2018

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