What's coming up in North American trade
The Bank of Canada is one of the most-intriguing central banks at the moment as we count down to the December 4 meeting. The OIS market is pricing in a 28% chance of a rate cut, rising to 50% in January.
A big deciding point for that meeting is today's CPI report. The headline is forecast at 1.9% y/y and 0.3% m/m. Estimates on the y/y number range from 1.7%-2.1%.
The BOC watches three core measures that are expected to range from 1.9% to 2.2%. Even a one-tick miss would tilt the odds one way or the other. Preview from Eamonn here.
For USD traders, the schedule is light until the FOMC minutes at 1700 GMT. I don't see any scope for a big dollar move but I will be looking for headlines that might indicate how aggressively the Fed would act if the trade war went off the rails.
Other items on the economic calendar include the weekly EIA energy inventories and a speech from the ECB's Lane at 1700 GMT (noon ET).
