Canadian fourth quarter GDP
- Q3 was +1.3% annualized (revised to +1.1%)
- December GDP m/m +0.3% vs +0.1% expected
- November GDP was +0.1%
- December GDP y/y +1.9% vs +1.6% expected
- Nov y/y was +1.5% (revised to +1.6%)
- Growth in 2019 was 1.6% vs 2.0% in 2018
- Full report
Separately, Canadian PPI:
- Industrial product price -0.3% vs +0.1% prior
- Raw materials price index -2.2% vs +2.7% prior
The Canadian economy was in better shape at year end than many had thought and the December number is particularly promising. Note the downward revisions to Q3 but growth for the year was better than believed at 1.9%.
What's worrisome is that rail blockades in Q1 along with coronavirus and the cratering in oil prices could slow GDP dramatically in the months ahead, putting Canada squarely at the risk of recession. The BOC could surprise next week with a cut.
