CBA on "an extraordinary negative near-term shock for the Australian economy"

A piece in the Australian Financial Review of note ahead of today's RBA policy decision.

The article is written by Gareth Aird, head of Australian economics at the Commonwealth Bank.

Link here (may be gated):

Why this lockdown exit will be worse than you think

• The economy is not going to snap back from the delta hit on NSW and Victoria as it did earlier.

In very, very brief:

• the medium-term prospects for Australia look very good
• But the near-term outlook is bleak, as extended lockdowns in NSW and Victoria cripple economic activity.
• Australia's two largest states ... these extended lockdowns ... carry large economic and social consequences
• We forecast the Australian economy will contract by a whopping 4.5 per cent in the September quarter. This massive loss of production will be accompanied by a huge fall in jobs.

Much more at the article, linked above.

----

I posted links to RBA previews earlier:

• The RBA will delay its taper today - here's why
• RBA monetary policy meeting Tuesday 7 September 2021 - preview
• CBA expect a reversal of the taper decision
• RBA monetary policy meeting next week - sneak peek preview
• Goldman Sachs preview the RBA monetary policy meeting September 7 - Expect QE taper plan to remain

• RBA like to delay taper but AUD risks still to the upside - MUFG
• Australian dollar steady ahead of the RBA decision. What to watch out for