A preview of the activity data for April, due on May 15 2019 at 0200 GMT
Industrial production
- y/y expected 6.5%,prior 8.5%
- YTD y/y expected 6.4%, prior 6.3%
Retail sales
- y/y expected 8.6%, prior 8.7%
- YTD y/y expected 8.4%, prior 8.3%
Fixed asset investment (excl rural)
- expected6.4% y/y, prior 6.3%
Via TD:
- Targeted monetary stimulus alongside tax cuts have clearly helped to fuel a recovery in industrial production.
- But the pull back in the PMI and weaker April exports data suggest IP is likely to slow in April, to around 6.3% y/y, in our view.
- Retail sales is also likely to moderate to a 8.5% y/y pace, with auto sales likely to be particularly weak.
Macquarie:
industrial production growth could drop to 6.5% yoy in Apr from 8.5% in March
- The strong March data were due to some one-off factors, including the distortion from the early Chinese New Year and surging raw material purchase ahead of VAT cut in April. As the effect fades, we could see IP growth decelerate meaningfully.
FAI growth could remain steady in April. So far this year, we have seen softening manufacturing FAI, a modest recovery in infrastructure FAI and robust property FAI. The most important thing to watch is property, especially for lower tier cities (accounting for 70% of overall property sales and new starts), which could be dragged down by the retreating of shanty-town renovation program.
