The European Commission releases its latest economic forecasts of the region
- Eurozone 2019 GDP growth 1.2% (unchanged)
- Eurozone 2020 GDP growth 1.4% (previously 1.5%)
- Euroozne 2019 inflation seen at 1.3% (previously 1.4%)
- Germany 2019 GDP growth 0.5% (unchanged)
- Germany 2020 GDP growth 1.4% (previously 1.5%)
- France 2019 GDP growth 1.3% (unchanged)
- France 2020 GDP growth 1.4% (previously 1.5%)
- Italy 2019 GDP growth 0.1% (unchanged)
- Italy 2020 GDP growth 0.7% (unchanged)
Prior forecasts can be found here. The commission cut its Eurozone growth and inflation forecast for next year citing trade tensions and policy uncertainty, in what will no doubt strengthen the ECB's case for introducing more stimulus this year.
"The rebound anticipated later in the year now looks weaker, as the global manufacturing cycle has yet to bottom out and the outlook for trade and investment continues to be clouded by protectionism and uncertainty. This adds to concerns about the medium-term outlook in China and the recent intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East."
Adding that "on the domestic side, a no-deal Brexit remains a major source of risk".
Not exactly pretty stuff two weeks before we get to the ECB meeting on 25 July and this just reaffirms the notion that the euro area economy in general is still likely to struggle in 2H 2019 rather than post a major economic rebound.
