That's higher than Kaplan

Kaplan last week said he would be comfortable in the 2.25-2.50% range, so this is a slightly higher level. In reality, this will never really be put to the test because there are so many measures of headline and core inflation that you can move the goalposts or lengthen the timeline to fit whatever your bias is.

Other comments:

  • Summary of economic projections provides a lot of guidances
  • Monetary policy will have a bigger role once unemployment rate is down to 7%, for now fiscal more important
  • Fresh Fed forecasts will likely indicate rates at zero for 'some time'
  • Question of how to structure threshold-based forward guidance is more complicated than it was in 2012