Speaking in Ft. Worth
The Dallas Fed Pres. adds:
- we are at, or have achieved full employment but there is some labor slack remaining
- We are approaching 2% inflation target
- Says that his base cases for just one more rate increase this year (That is at odds with the Fed's dot plot which targets 2 more)
- Near term US economic outlook is strong
- global supply and demand of oil is in rough balance (oil is trading at $65 currently down -2.86%)
- Sees fragile equilibrium on oil price for the next 2 – 3 years, with risk to upside beyond that
- There is short-term spike risk to oil prices due to geopolitical factors
- job losses in US unlikely due to trade, more likely due to technological disruption
- trade is an opportunity not a threat for the United States
- Flatter yield curve reflects sluggish future expectations
- will not knowingly advocate for raising rates so much that you'll curve inverts
- Yield curve is a very critical factor that he, and others at the Fed, look at when deciding on rate policy
- the size of US debt is a key consideration for Fed on rate policy
