For much of my trading I am, if not a jobber, at least a fairly active intraday trader. I have taken a different approach to the CHF and I have built a medium/long term short position against the AUD primarily but also against the USD.
My basic reasoning is common sense or logic, (which can be a dangerous tool in forex markets). The world is going through a banking crisis of unprecedented proportions and Switzerland relies very heavily on its’ banking industry. Ergo, you would logically surmise, the CHF should weaken.
In addition, the CHF has been used as a safe-haven for legitimate and not-so-legitimate accounts for many decades. If, for any reason, this money suddenly starts to get scared and head for the exit, it will make the charge of the light brigade look like the local donkey derby.
The bank-privacy issues which are currently under discussion and review between UBS and the US government are obviously of massive importance. Any major changes there, and I just might be on a winner.
