Forex news for Asia trading Tuesday 12 February 2019
- Japan data - December Tertiary Industry Index -0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%)
- The countries that have abolished their own currency, adopted the USD
- China Commerce Ministry: Consumption growth in 2019 may continue to slow
- President Trump says we are going to make great deals on trade
- HSBC is not expecting a proactive RBA
- Updates to AUD and NZD outlooks (Westpac)
- RBNZ inflation expectations data for Q1: 2-year at 2.02%
- In principle agreement reached to avert US government shut down
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7765 (vs. yesterday at 6.7495)
- BOJ cuts JGB purchases in 10-25 year window, first time since July 2018
- More on National Australia Bank changing their RBA rate move call
- CNBC was blacked out in China due to an offensive image. Here is the image.
- Citi on the US China trade talks coming up this week - what to look for
- Australia January business conditions 7 (prior 2) & business confidence 4 (prior 3)
- Australia Home loans (December): -6.1% m/m (vs. expected -2.0%)
- NZ data - ANZ Monthly Inflation Gauge (January) +1.1% m/m … 'slow grind'
- Chinese banks lending to the private sector rising according to FT survey
- Air NZ plane forced to turn around after airline forgot to remove reference to Taiwan
- Brexit - UK press report Cabinet Ministers believe May is preparing to resign as PM
- "Weak growth and political tensions, most obviously around Italy" have chipped away at EUR
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting - preview
- Australia weekly consumer confidence survey: 114.1 (prior 118.1)
- Trade ideas thread - Tuesday 12 February 2019
- New Zealand Card spending (January) Retail 1.8% m/m (expected 1.4%)
- EU official says an urgent solution is need on Brexit
- EU Brexit negotiator Barnier, UK Brexit secretary Barclay had "constructive" meeting
- NZ data - ANZ Truckometer +3.5% m/m (prior -4.4%)
While we await the back half of the week and a more substantial flow of data and news (RBNZ, CPIs from the US and China, trade talks to name just a few) forex rates shuffled around in small ranges here in Asia.
AUD was a mover. We had housing finance data (another big drop) and business confidence and conditions (an improvement after a dreadful previous month for conditions) released during the session. In the immediate wake of the data AUD/USD popped a little, then dropped a little and subsequently gained a few points in the following hours. AUD/USD was helped along by a CNH that added a few points and some background AUD/NZD buying ahead of tomorrow's RBNZ policy announcement ... speaking of the RBNZ, previews are down the bottom of this post.
NZD/USD followed along with the AUD in a similar sort of pattern but in a reduced range.
USD/JPY added further points on the session. It managed above 110.50 in the Tokyo morning, gave a bit back when the BOJ bought fewer JGBs (10-25 year window) than previously but then ticked higher still, above 110.60 at one stage. Its not much off there as I update.
Cable, EUR/USD, USD/CHF are all very little changed on the session. There is an interesting Brexit item above, PM May seeking help from Van Rompuy. May is still seeking solutions as March 29 looms.
USD/CAD is back under 1.33 here in Asia today.
Still to come:
RBNZ Wednesday:
- RBNZ monetary policy announcement due Wednesday - at a new time for the Bank
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy meeting - preview
- Deutsche Bank expect the RBNZ to delay rate hike
- ASB dial back their RBNZ rate hike expectations
- Responses to the NZ jobs data miss - RBNZ, NZD
- More on the NZD and RBNZ - Shadow Board sees cash rate firmly on no change
- RBNZ seen on hold
