Forex news for Asia trading Monday 15 July 2019
- China data dump - analyst response coming through - "generally stronger numbers"
- NZD traders - heads up for inflation data due Tuesday NZ time
- AUD/USD testing Friday's high on China GDP and June activity data
- China Industrial production (June): 6.3% y/y (expected 5.2%)
- China June Retail Sales 9.8% y/y (vs. expected 8.5%)
- China June 2019 Fixed Assets (excluding rural) investment YTD 5.8% y/y (exp 5.6%)
- China GDP data for Q2 6.2% y/y (expected 6.2%)
- PBOC one year MLF, 200bn yuan
- More on Congress looking to ban big tech from digital currencies
- China June house prices higher, but slower pace of rise than in May
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8677 (vs. yesterday at 6.8662)
- FX option expiries on Monday 15 July 2019
- Watching China data for a guide to EUR today
- Deutsche Bank expect the Fed to launch a repo facility next year
- Bitcoin weekend update - lower
- Citi on the FOMC, 25 bp cut this month and another by year end
- Reports that Japan may have exported prohibited items into North Korea
- US firms may get approval to restart sales to Huawei in 2 to 4 weeks
- UK July Rightmove House Prices -0.2% m/m (prior 0.3%)
- China is ignoring the US by reinforcing state-directed economic model
- Weekend - Huawei planning "extensive" US staff layoffs
- NZ data - Performance Services Index (June): 52.7 (previous: 53.6)
- Barclays on the FOMC - 25bp cut in July, more to come by end of 2019
- Boris Johnson would seek a US trade deal as his first move if he becomes PM
- RBA rate cuts - Australian economy "going to hell in a hand basket. It really isn’t"
- Australia's three uranium mines dodge a Trump bullet
- Weekend - South Korea said it'll raise Japan export curbs at WTO meeting
- Canada says another citizen detained in China
- Trade ideas thread - Monday 15 July 2019
- TRY traders - President Erdogan said Turkey will make serious cuts to interest rates
- Updated NZD view - Fed to send it up, RBNZ to send it back down again
- US Treas Sec Mnuchin warns that debt ceiling could be hit in September
- Monday morning early FX levels - indicative forex rates 15 July 2019
AUD/JPY a gainer for the session here, as were many yen crosses.
The session began slowly, not unusual for a Monday morning in Asia, but took a little longer to kick into gear with a holiday for Japanese markets today (they are back on Tuesday).
The moves were minor leading up to big data releases from China today - Q2 GDP along with 'activity data' for June (industrial production, retail sales and investment). On the whole, the Chinese data came in surprisingly strong. It wasn't all great, while GDP met expectations, at 6.2% y/y its tracking at its lowest in 27 years.
On the other hand, industrial production recorded a huge beat (see bullets above) but a caveat is it came off a 17 year low in the previous month. Retail sales too, a good beat. The key takeaway (data veracity notwithstanding) is stimulus appears to be having an impact. That would appear to be the key takeaway for forex, AUD/JPY has traded higher for the session with flows to AUD and out yen. Other yen crosses fared well also.
NZD/USD has also seen benefit, even more so than AUD (commiserations to NZ on the cricket BTW). Still looking against the USD it was a net flat sort of session for EUR, GBP (congrats on the cricket!).
Gold opened better bid to begin the week but has slid back from early highs to be net a few dollars lower on the session. BTC had a poor weekend, under $10,000 at one stage (briefly only).
