Forex news for North American trading on February 14, 2020:
- US January advance retail sales +0.3% vs +0.3% expected (control group soft)
- February prelim U Mich consumer sentiment 100.9 vs 99.5 expected
- All people returning to Beijing should self-quarantine for 14-days - Chinese press
- US January industrial production -0.3% vs -0.2% expected
- Canada January existing home sales -2.9% vs -0.1% expected
- OPEC+ close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting - report
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 678 vs 676 prior
- Fed's Mester: Underlying fundamentals for the US economy are pretty good
- Goldman Sachs says Chinese oil demand may have fallen by 4 mbpd
- NY Fed GDP Nowcast 1.39% vs 1.67% a week ago
- Tedros says WHO wants to know more about virus infection of 1,760 Chinese healthcare workers
- Johnson's spokesman says ministers reminded they need to find 5% budget savings
- US import price index for Jan 0.0% vs 0.2% est. Export price index +0.7% vs -0.1% est.
- CFTC Commitments of Traders: Euro shorts continue to build
Markets:
- Gold up $9 to $1585
- WTI crude up 79-cents to $52.21
- US 10-year yields down 3 bps to 1.59%
- S&P 500 up 6 points to 3380
- CAD leads, CHF lags
The main data point of the day was the US January retail sales report and the news was poor with the control group missing estimates along with a sizeable downward revision to December. Optimists pointed out that clothing was the reason for the miss but the average of the past six months in the control group is now 0%. In any case, the FX market shrugged it off. The dollar fell 20-30 pips across the board then slowly recovered.
The news on the consumer was better in the U Mich survey as sentiment rose to the highest since March 2018. Again, the market reaction was minimal.
The bigger unfolding story is the continued weakness in the euro as it slumped for the 9th time in 10 days. It rallied to 1.0860 only ti give it all back and close on the lows at 1.0830.
USD/JPY trading was uninspired. The pair fell gave up some modest gains after retail sales but there was no real push to the downside and the pair finished flat.
The commodity bloc was equally uninspiring. USD/CAD fell to an 11-day low but only touched a couple pips below Wednesday's low before rebounding and finishing down 15 pips.
Gold was a better mover as it came into North American trade flat and then caught a nice bid that lasted until late along with the highest close since Feb 3.
Have a great weekend, and a great long weekend if you're in the US.
