Forex news for North American trade on July 19, 2019:
- Canada May retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- Fed officials signal 25 bps cut likely this month - WSJ
- Iran says it has captured British oil tanker in Strait of Hormuz
- Expect some 'goodwill' actions from US and China - report
- Bullard says he would like to cut rates by 25 bps this month
- Baker Hughes US oil rig count 779 vs 784 prior
- July prelim U Mich consumer sentiment 98.4 vs 98.8 expected
- Belgian July consumer confidence -6 vs -7 prior
- Canada May retail sales -0.1% vs +0.3% expected
- CFTC Commitment of Traders: GBP shorts remain the largest speculative position
- Iran says seized UK-flagged tanker had turned off tracker and ignored warnings
- Iran met with US Senator Rand Paul to feel out deal appetite
Markets:
- Gold down $20 to $1425
- WTI crude up 65-cents to $55.95
- US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 2.05%
- S&P 500 down 18.5 points to 2976
- USD leads, EUR lags on day
- NZD leads, GBP lags on week
North American trade started out with a miss on Canadian retail sales. That quickly sent USD/CAD up to 1.3110 on the headline but the gain didn't last, in part due to details of the report that showed an odd drop in grocery store sales as a main culprit. USD/CAD retreated to 1.3070 shortly after then fell further late as Iran worries prompted a rebound in crude.
The market looked to be grinding towards the finish line but was hit by a series of headlines late. The first was that Iran had seized a UK-flagged ship in the Strait of Hormuz. That sent oil higher and worried stock markets. A WSJ report talking about only 25 bps compounded the move and that sent stocks from flat to solidly negative in the final two hours.
USD/JPY initially jumped on the Fed talk and hit 107.98 but gave back the 20 pip move in the following hour. It was a similar story across the board with the FX market less worried about the timing of cuts.
Cable started the day near 1.2550 and a session high but bled lower into the London fix and fell as low as 1.2476 on the WSJ report before finishing nearly right on the 1.2500 figure.
EUR/USD slipped a bit on a Speigel report about Draghi planning to ease in November but the damage was barely noticeable. Still, it was a rough finish for the euro at 1.1216 from 1.1282 late yesterday on the Williams talk.
Have a great weekend.
