Forex news for North American trade on March 2, 2021:
- ECB's Panetta: Must establish that unwarranted tightening will not be tolerated
- Fed's Brainard: Fed will remain patient on monetary policy
- Brainard Q&A: I am paying close attention to market developments
- Canada Q4 GDP % q/q annualized +9.6% vs +7.3% expected
- Schumer says Senate will have the votes to pass $1.9 trillion stimulus
- Fed's Daly: Recent rise in inflation compensation is 'encouraging' and in line with Fed goals
- Even dairy prices are soaring: GDT price index +15.0%
- ISM New York Feb business conditions 35.5 vs 51.2 prior
- Tokyo to ask for two-week virus emergency extension
- OPEC's Barkindo: Outlook for oil market continues to be positive
- Gold up $10 to $1734
- US 10-year yields down 0.5 bps to 1.41%
- WTI crude down $1.01 to $59.63
- S&P 500 down 31 points to 3870
- AUD leads, USD lags
If you're looking for easy answers on why the US dollar fell today, you won't find them here. Brainard introduced the lightest bit of concern about rising yields but it didn't even amount to verbal intervention and -- in any case -- the vast majority of the move came before she spoke.
One factor was a big wave of USD selling into the London fix. That led to some 20 pip moves in short order but they extended afterwards.
The rally in the euro was particularly surprising given that Panetta was unequivocal in leaning against higher yields and basically promising to take action at the March 11 meeting.
USD/JPY softened in the session but was flat on the day. Sterling was in the middle of the pack and is tracking back towards 1.40. Sunak said that a withdrawal of stimulus will have to come but was mushy on the timelines.
Commodity currencies were strong despite a drop in oil prices. Copper was higher and AUD's outperformance is because of the outside drop last week. Still, it's rare to see AUD at the top of the leaderboard on a day when stocks take a pretty big hit.
The big commodity news on the day might have been the sensational dairy auction in New Zealand. It's another sign that a commodity supercycle is here (tired of hearing about supercycle's yet?)