Forex news for North American trade on September 29, 2020:
- US Sept Conference Board consumer confidence 101.8 vs 90.0 expected
- US July Case-Shiller 20-city house price index +3.95% y/y vs +3.6% exp
- Advanced US trade balance for August -$82.9B vs -$81.8B estimate
- Merkel warns that delay in EU recovery fund 'increasingly likely'
- White House to counter offer Democrats a $1.5-1.6T stimulus bill - report
- Fed's Williams: Not worried about inflation, Fed has proved it can reign it in
- Williams: Outlook will be somewhat weaker without more fiscal support
- UK reports record 7143 coronavirus cases vs 4044 on Monday
- BOE's Bailey: We do not rule out negative rates but are realistic about challenges
- Bailey: We have a lot of practical work to do before we could cut below zero
- Dallas Fed Sept service sector index +11.5 vs +4.7 prior
- Fed's Kaplan: Zero rates likely appropriate until late 2022 or 2023
- Fed's Harker: US employment won't recover until 2023
- Kuwait's head of state has died
- US August prelim wholesale inventories +0.5% vs -0.1% exp
- Canada August industrial product price +0.3% vs +0.1% expected
- Netherlands daily coronavirus cases hit record daily high at 3011
- Germany September preliminary CPI -0.2% vs 0.0% y/y expected
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 16 points to 3335
- WTI crude oil down $1.60 to $39.00
- US 10-year yields down 0.6 bps to 0.64%
- Gold up $16 to $1897
- AUD leads, CAD lags
It was an uneasy session with anxiety building ahead of the US Presidential debate at 0100 GMT. The tone deteriorated in equities throughout the day but the dollar trade was flat.
One exception was in USD/CAD, which rose on falling oil prices due to Libya restarts and demand worries on a resurgence in the virus. The pair rose to 1.3417 before backing off to 1.3384.
The Merkel headline briefly hurt the euro but it recoupled the intraday dip to finish near the highs of the day.
Cable chopped on Brexit and Bailey but there were no meaningful moves. The more I listen to Bailey, the more I think he's going to talk himself into negative rates but he's stretching the timeline and there were more positive murmurs on Brexit.
